The rise of fifth-generation warfare (5GW) has turned social media into a key arena for influencing public opinion in Pakistan. To combat misinformation and strengthen national unity, Pakistan needs a comprehensive strategy focused on media literacy, cybersecurity collaboration, and the creation of dedicated think tanks.
"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting."
—Sun Tzu
In the modern age, social media has appeared as a potent tool for shaping public opinion, swaying political discourse and even influencing the outcome of conflicts. The arrival of fifth-generation warfare (5GW) has further augmented the importance of social media as nations progressively employ non-kinetic means to attain strategic objectives. Pakistan, given its complex landscape, geography, and security environment, is particularly vulnerable to the detrimental effects of social media. In the context of 5GW, social media platforms have transformed into battlegrounds for competing narratives, where both state and non-state actors engage in an ongoing struggle for cognitive dominance. The dissemination of information, misinformation, and propaganda through social media has become a critical component of modern warfare, allowing adversaries to intrude, infiltrate, and influence the public sphere, ultimately undermining national cohesion. Additionally, social media has emerged as a vital tool for social activism, political mobilization, and even terrorist recruitment in Pakistan. In light of this, this article aims to explore the role of social media in shaping public opinion in Pakistan through the lens of 5GW. It seeks to provide a clear understanding of the 5GW landscape and its implications for political stability, national cohesion, and security in the 21st century.
Generations of Warfare
Several models and theories are undertaken to investigate the nature of warfare. According to Clausewitz, " every age has its kind of war, its limiting conditions and its peculiar preconceptions"1. Warfare is a continuous process. It has prevailed in human history since human existence. However, the advent of the Industrial Revolution in the mid-19th century, besides introducing unprecedented technological advancements in other fields, also influenced military strategies, tactics and weaponry accordingly. Nonetheless, warfare in the 21st century has changed battlefield dynamics altogether. To crystalize understanding of 5GW, we will have to relate and study the concept of “generations of warfare” evolved over the centuries as under2,3:
First Generation Warfare. Its time began after the Treaty of Westphalia was signed in 1648 and continued until the American Civil War (i.e., 1861 to 1865). Military uniforms, ranks, and saluting were introduced to exercise strict command and control and to distinguish soldiers from civilians. However, this form of warfare was characterized by the concentration of manpower in columns, line tactics, and phalanx formations. The attainment of political objectives was possible through a single battle. The battles of Panipat and Plassey, fought in the subcontinent, as well as the Napoleonic Wars fought between 1803 and 1815, are prime examples of first-generation warfare.
Second Generation Warfare. It commenced in the late 19th century and continued until the end of the First World War and beyond. The dawning of the 20th century brought with it radio communication, breach-loaded muskets, machine guns, and trench warfare. Massed manpower was the hallmark of the first generation of warfare. Similarly, the second generation of warfare is characterized by the concentration of firepower or attrition warfare. The French army's artillery conquers and infantry occupation became popular slogans.
Third Generation Warfare. It was a transformed concept of warfare, also called Maneuver Warfare. It changed the previous culture of first- and second-generation warfare (linear warfare) altogether. The Germans practiced the doctrine in the 40s. Helicopter and missile technology came to the surface to target distant enemies. Fighter aircraft, tanks and artillery were introduced as war weapons. In the meantime, Germany used a blitzkrieg strategy against the French to demonstrate the power of speed and maneuverability over trench warfare. Third generation tactics are still in use in conventional warfare.
Fourth Generation Warfare. William S. Lind introduced the concept of fourth-generation warfare, which is a complex form of warfare often interchangeable with hybrid warfare.4 Fourth-generation warfare is generally considered to have begun in the mid-20th century (i.e., around the 1940s to 1950s) and continues to this day. This form of warfare is characterized by non-state actors. Suitable examples include the Viet Cong insurgency (1955-1975), the Palestinian Intifada (1987-1993), the Iraqi insurgency, and the Taliban insurgency against NATO forces.
Apropos, all these generations of warfare are relevant for a better understanding of 5GW, which will be discussed under the main headings in separate paragraphs below.
Fifth Generation Warfare
▪ Definitional Approximations of 5GW. 5GW is a battle of information and perception. Robert Steel coined the term “Fifth Generation Warfare” in 2003. This war does not stand merely to attain military or strategic objectives; its canvas is broad enough to achieve political, economic, and religious objectives. Misinformation is floated with bad intent to strike the opponent on different fronts (i.e. political, economic, and strategic)5. Further, 5GW is conducted through non-kinetic military actions such as cyberattacks, social engineering, and the spread of disinformation with the help of artificial intelligence and autonomous systems5. Notwithstanding, no consensual or universal definition of 5GW has been agreed upon. According to Major Shannon Bee (U.S. Army), instead of being driven by material or ideological objectives, 5GW is motivated by frustration6. Similarly, in his collections of articles about 5GW, Abbot states that this warfare manipulates information and becomes a cultural and moral war7. According to Krishnan, 5GW exhibits such exuberance of violence that the defeated side could not even make out of her defeat8. As mentioned, the idea of 5GW has been promoted in military language. Nevertheless, it is an unclear concept with multifaceted dimensions.
▪ The Anatomy of 5GW. Critical information is accessed through governmental institutions, educational centers, social media, and electronic and print media. These statistics are further disseminated using fake details and catchy words on all the above-mentioned different media platforms and websites to attract the public attention of the targeted country or hostile target. It is a slow but continuous process to inculcate wrong information and brainwash naïve subjects. Cyberattacks on governmental websites are another tactic used to access sensitive information9.
▪ Role of Social Media in 5GW. Until 2023, the total number of active social media users in Pakistan was 71.1 million. It becomes almost 30 percent of the total population of Pakistan10. They are highly susceptible to the propaganda of anti-state elements. Popular social media platforms such as X (formerly known as Twitter), Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, YouTube, and TikTok are being exploited by hostile countries to spread misinformation and propaganda against Pakistan and its armed forces. The primary targets of this fake news are often the youth and those who are less informed. A few significant examples include the following:
▪ In 2015, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) initiative was launched at a time when Pakistan was facing numerous challenges, including terrorism, declining foreign direct investment, increasing debt, load shedding, and a shrinking economy. Numerous projects under CPEC have been completed, and many others are about to be completed11. India is unhappy with the progress of CPEC. Consequently, in addition to creating baseless propaganda (a war of perception), it has begun using terrorism to undermine the CPEC project and tarnish the Pakistan-China friendship.12
▪ In 2019, the EU DisinfoLab launched an investigation into Indian online 5GW project, which had been operating under the cover name "Indian Chronicles" since 2005. This network comprised more than 550 registered website domains and over 750 fake media outlets working in 119 countries against Pakistan. Additionally, more than ten fake United Nations Human Rights Council-accredited non-governmental organizations (NGOs) had been established to act against Pakistan's national interests.13
▪ Similarly, India's defense budget for 2024/2025 is USD 74 billion14, whereas Pakistan's defense budget for 2024/2025 is merely PKR 2.122 trillion15. Despite the significant differences in budget, India is tirelessly working to demonstrate and convince people that Pakistan is a danger to the region. It has the mechanism to draft narratives, identify targets, and promote its harmful ideas in the rapidly evolving market of 5GW. Ehsanullah Ehsan of Fitna al-Khawarij, FAK (formerly known as Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, TTP) has confessed that India is involved in terrorism and spreading anti-Pakistan rhetoric to poison innocent minds.16
5GW requires an inclusive response involving all components of society as a whole. However, to better understand 5GW and its relationship with social media, the following is recommended:
▪ A comprehensive strategy should be devised under the supervision of the Federal Government to educate the public on how to critically evaluate information and identify propaganda. This can be achieved through electronic and print media outreach for all citizens. Additionally, this content may be included in the curriculum to enhance student awareness. Furthermore, seminars on 5GW can be held at the university level, led by experts to share ideas.
▪ The establishment of dedicated think tanks is essential to focus on 5GW. These think tanks should comprise experts in strategic studies from academia, military veterans, and civil servants, among others. Additionally, this dedicated team of intellectuals must represent all provinces based on merit, education, and experience. The think tanks will be tasked with conducting comprehensive risk assessments, identifying vulnerabilities, and suggesting strategies to counter 5GW. The recommendations of the panel should be taken seriously and implemented accordingly.
▪ Lastly, the government, civil society, and the private sector should collaborate to improve cybersecurity and protect critical infrastructure from hacking or compromise. This can be achieved by investing in the modernization of cybersecurity infrastructure, including updated encryption technologies, intrusion detection systems, and firewalls. Additionally, teams should be created to respond quickly and effectively to cybersecurity incidents. It is also important to ensure their training and conduct refresher courses to keep them up to date with modern trends and variations in technology.
The introduction of 5GW has revolutionized the techniques used to wage war. Social media has emerged as a critical battleground in shaping public opinion. With its complex geopolitical landscape and vibrant online community, Pakistan is particularly vulnerable to manipulation in 5GW. To mitigate the effects of 5GW, Pakistan must develop a comprehensive strategy to counter the spread of misinformation and propaganda on social media. This includes investing in media literacy programs, promoting critical thinking, and encouraging fact-based discourse.
Moreover, the government, civil society, and the private sector must collaborate to create a robust cybersecurity infrastructure capable of detecting and countering online threats. By doing so, Pakistan can protect its national interests, preserve social cohesion, and ensure that hostile forces do not manipulate public opinion. Pakistan must equip itself with the intellectual and technological tools necessary to win this war. By understanding the dynamics of 5GW and the role of social media in shaping public opinion, Pakistan can take the first step toward a more secure and prosperous future.
Clausewitz, C. V., Howard, M. & Paret, (ed), P. On War. (Princeton University Press, 1989).
2. Hussain, B. S. Hybrid Warfare and Threats to Pakistan. PAGB 83 (2023).
3. Raazia, I., Jan Butt, M. A., Sabi, M. & Rafaqat, I. Conceptualizing Hybrid Warfare: India’s Tactics Confronting Pakistan’s Security. JRSP 59, 105 (2022).
4. Field, C. The Canon and Four Generations of Warfare – Part 4 | Australian Army Research Centre (AARC). https://researchcentre.army.gov.au/library/land-power-forum/canon-and-four-generations-warfare-part-4 (2017).
5. Abbot, D. H. The Handbook of Fifth-Generation Warfare (5GW). (Nimble Books LLC, 2010).
6. Janjua, R. W. Fifth Generation Warfare in Pakistan. Daily Times (2018).
7. Lind. The Handbook of Fifth Generation Warfare. (2010).
8. Krishnan, A. Fifth Generation Warfare, Hybrid Warfare, and Gray Zone Conflict: A Comparison. JSS 15, (2022).
9. Nawaz, A., Zeeshan, M. & Akhlaq, S. Fifth-Generation Warfare: A Quagmire and Fiasco to National Solidity of Pakistan. SAS 38, 58 (2023).
10. Nawaz et al. Fifth Generation Warfare: A Quagmire and Fiasco. 59 (2023).
11. Ramay, S. A. Countering growing propaganda against CPEC. The Express Tribune https://tribune.com.pk/story/2371195/countering-growing-propaganda-against-cpec (2022).
12. Jahangir, J. & Bashir, N. Fifth Generation and Hybrid Warfare: Response Strategy of Pakistan: Academic Journal of Social Sciences (AJSS) 6, 059–076 (2022).
13. Alexandre Alaphilippe, G. M., Adamczyk, R. & Grégoire, A. Indian Chronicles: Deep dive into a 15-year operation targeting the EU and UN to serve Indian interests. EU DisinfoLab https://www.disinfo.eu/publications/indian-chronicles-deep-dive-into-a-15-year-operation-targeting-the-eu-and-un-to-serve-indian-interests/ (2020).
14. Siddiqui, H. Empowering India’s Defence: Unveiling the FY 2024-25 Budget. Financialexpress (2024).
15. Niaz, T. Defence budget goes up by 15.64 pc to Rs. 2.122 tr. The Nation https://www.nation.com.pk/13-Jun-2024/defence-budget-goes-up-by-15-64pc-to-rs2-122tr (2024).
16. Ali, M. Confessions of former TTP spokesman, Indian spy have ‘unveiled India’s nefarious designs,’ says FO. https://gulfnews.com/world/asia/pakistan/confessions-of-former-ttp-spokesman-indian-spy-have-unveiled-indias-nefarious-designs-says-fo-1.2018326 (2017).
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