Despite a growing consensus on climate change's imminent threat to global stability and security, decisive action remains elusive. Pakistan must urgently embrace innovative strategies and adaptive policies to confront this escalating crisis head-on.

Climate change has become a fast-growing, potent threat to human existence and survival with severe repercussions for the states' national power. Rising temperatures, irregular rainfall, frequent floods, and accelerated sea level rise have strained natural resources, leading to food insecurity, water scarcity, and infrastructural deterioration. Mass migration and displacement from vulnerable regions, alongside huge population growth, have created management crises and governance issues in developing countries, including Pakistan. Pakistan ranks among the top 10 most vulnerable countries, with 0.3 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions while bearing huge effects from climate threats. The devastating floods of 2010 and 2022 have further imbalanced the economic growth, industrial progression and services sector, exposing governance and infrastructural fragility. Increased death ratio, spreading climate diseases, and lack of  capacity to rehabilitate vulnerable populations have created national security challenges for the country. The unmanageable and inevitable climate threat would further strain national security, especially with a depleting economic situation, accelerated inflation and rapidly increasing unemployment. This article aims to assess Pakistan's vulnerability to climate threats as a national security crisis, evaluate the state's response and institutional capacity, and propose policy measures to enhance resilience and address climate-related risks.
Climate change refers to significant and irreversible changes in the global environment, including prolonged heatwaves and weather patterns. The fast-growing changes occur due to human-induced industrial and economic activities, changing rainfall patterns, storms, and global temperature changes. This strains natural resources and thus leads to the degradation of society's economic and industrial base. The accelerated pace of weather changes and an increase of 1.5 to 20C severely impact human survival.¹ Population explosion and mass migration from vulnerable regions to settled areas further add to the growing challenges and worsen the management issues. The envisioned future would be prone to food insecurity, water scarcity, infrastructural deterioration, and depletion of natural resources.

Pakistan ranks among the top 10 most vulnerable countries, with 0.3 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions while bearing huge effects from climate threats. 

Climate change was recognized as a non-traditional security threat by the end of the 20^th century when the rapidly growing climate effects surfaced on socioeconomic and governance aspects. The effects rapidly multiplied in the developing countries, exacerbating existing challenges, worsening governance and authority and causing a law-and-order situation. The lack of resources, financial crisis, and insufficient institutional capability have exacerbated disasters and management issues. Unmanaged mass migration from vulnerable areas and the failure to rehabilitate climate refugees have worsened climate effects, leading to the emergence of social evils, climate-related diseases, and conflicts. Consequently, these issues have threatened the national security of vulnerable states. Therefore, climate change has become a significant non-traditional security threat to human survival, rapidly reshaping the world.
As the global south experiences more frequent and intense droughts, storms, floods, heatwaves, and rising sea levels, the West and the U.S. also face abrupt wildfires in forests and the closure of routine life due to prolonged heatwaves. These variations in the climate cause loss of infrastructure, reduced fertility, and crop yields that forced population displacement and unemployment.² Reduced water capacity and unfavorable temperature and precipitation variations could have serious socioeconomic consequences in agriculture-dependent economies like Pakistan. Besides negatively affecting food availability, water scarcity results in inadequate and insufficient energy by reducing reservoir water.  
Pakistan is among the top 10 most vulnerable countries, confronted with the rapidly growing effects of climate change and global warming. Consequently, rising temperatures, flash floods, and irregular patterns of monsoons have damaged agricultural and energy infrastructure and economic and industrial systems, causing huge displacement and climate migration. The large-scale floods of 2010 and the super floods of 2022 highlighted areas for improvement in the country's governance system, institutional balance, capacity, and rehabilitation mechanisms. The situation was further worsened by unmanageable inflation, rising unemployment, deteriorating health infrastructure, and unjust distribution of shelter and food items. The environment contributed to lawlessness, increased crime rate, and unparalleled rifts, further causing an imbalanced society. It is believed that such a situation is conducive to extremist elements of the society, which could be exploited for an anti-state agenda. 
To mitigate the climate effects and secure its elements of national power, Pakistan always diverts available funds for rescue operations, provision of food, shelter, and medicines, and rehabilitation and resettlement projects, at the cost of compromising development projects and improving the economic and industrial situation. Moreover, Pakistan is forced to borrow huge loans from international donors and developed nations, which further overstrains the worsening economic situation and brings disparity between imports and exports. 
Today, Pakistan faces unprecedented climate threats, including intense droughts, water scarcity, fire eruptions, rising sea levels, flash floods, melting glaciers, and storms, severely affecting the country's national power.
Climate Change and National Security    
The accelerated pace of climate change and its severe effects were realized after the Industrial Revolution, which incorporated large-scale development and industrial projects. Excessive carbon emissions and burning fossil fuels are major contributors to climate change. Forest degradation and higher atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to global warming and frequent floods, which have endangered human life and existence. Climate change is a global phenomenon affecting different geographical areas, including South Asia. Environmental scientists believe that the earth's temperature will exceed 1.4-5.8 0C by the end of the century, severely affecting human security.³ The climate disasters would force huge climate refugees from vulnerable regions to settled areas, further compounding the issue. Rising temperatures would cause water scarcity due to a decrease in precipitation. Stress on already depleting water resources would increase droughts and decline crop yields. Effects on agriculture would drastically lead to product price hikes.  
Fragile economies are more vulnerable to climate threats due to their severe effects on production, services, and infrastructure, causing a huge unemployment ratio. This situation instigates conflicts, crimes, inflation, and food shortages and derails youth, adding to lawlessness and social instability. Resultant youth frustration and brain drain would hinder the state's production, causing more imports. The economic situation would further worsen with the huge influx of climate refugees from rural to urban environments, causing crimes, conflicts and humanitarian crises.  
Environmental scientists realized the impact of greenhouse gases on global warming during the 19th century. By the end of the 20th century, the global community acknowledged the association between climate threat and national security. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was created in 1995 to counter growing security threats. This panel initiated the research on climate threats to human survival. However, it was in 2010 that climate change was formally considered a 'non-traditional security threat' when Germany took over the lead role in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).⁴ Climate change was endorsed in the February 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review as a threat multiplier, which would lead to conflicts in the future. Hence, climate change can potentially damage peace and stability by exacerbating tensions and conflicts in the society. 
Due to severe climate effects on the elements of national power, i.e., geography, national resources, population, economic and political stability, military power, and national behavior, the global community has associated climate change and global warming with non-traditional security threats to states. The definition of national security has also been expanded, integrating climate change with other threats to human security.
Climate-Induced Security Threats to Pakistan
Climate change is Pakistan's biggest security threat, and for the past two decades, it has consistently ranked among the top 10 most vulnerable countries on the Climate Risk Index.⁵ Pakistan contributes less than one per cent of the greenhouse gases to the earth's atmosphere but bears huge effects of global carbon emissions. Pakistan has been confronted with climate effects since the start of the 21st century. The earthquake of 2005 and large-scale floods of 2010, 2014, and 2022 further damaged the already deteriorating economy and depleted natural resources.⁶ These calamities cause geopolitical and socioeconomic stress, such as displacement, economic stagnation, and damage to infrastructure and provoke social unrest. It is also pertinent that Pakistan’s limited financial and technical capacity hinders our will to adapt to these adverse effects. 
Rising temperatures and excessive flooding have disrupted social life in the country while posing serious challenges to national security and economic stability. The majority of Pakistan's population is vulnerable to long-term climate risk, where approximately 10,000 people die annually due to climate-related diseases, causing an estimated USD 4 billion in financial loss. The huge floods of 2010 across the country affected more than 20 million people while damaging 20 percent of the land.⁷ Similarly, the 2022 super floods displaced approximately thirty-three million people and caused the loss of 1700 lives. As a result, infrastructure damage and water shortages have imbalanced Pakistan's food security, production, and supply mechanisms.⁸ Millions of people went below the poverty line with no access to education, health, and other resources. Due to huge losses and the state's inability to secure the exposed population, Pakistan sought loans from international forums and developed countries, which further stressed its economic crisis. 
Due to rising and prolonged heatwaves, excessive flooding, and intense waterfalls, food production has reduced tremendously, particularly wheat yield, which has affected food security in Pakistan. The rising threat of food insecurity and water shortage was projected to the global community by Pakistan after the devastating floods of 2022. It is also significant that the prolonged effects of floods, water scarcity, and heatwaves have rendered farmers vulnerable to survival crises, limiting their options of producing good crops. As per UN reports, Pakistan is facing a crisis of food shortages, which are further deteriorating by 10 per cent annually. 
Apart from water scarcity, Pakistan is also facing the challenge of water pollution, which creates hygiene issues and causes more climate diseases. Due to the failure to fulfil provincial water requirements, the provinces have expressed their reservation and dissatisfaction over the water distribution share, creating rifts among the people of different provinces. As per Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) statistics, national rainfall for March 2022 was 62 per cent below normal and ranked 9th driest month since 1961, while rainfall was largely below normal over all parts of the country with Balochistan (-66 per cent), Sindh (-65 per cent), Punjab (-65 per cent), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (-66 per cent) and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (-48 per cent) all experienced extreme deficient rainfall.⁹  
The constant and growing threat of floods, glacier melting, prolonged heatwaves, food shortages, and water scarcity has led to urban migration, which has security implications for settled areas.¹⁰ Apart from contributing to the existing crime rate, climate migration puts huge pressure on critical infrastructure, energy resources, supply roads, and other natural resources. A 2016 report warned that climate-related stress could push as much as 50 per cent of Pakistan's rapidly growing population to urban areas in the next 10-15 years and close to 70 per cent by the end of the century.¹¹   
Pakistan's deteriorated health infrastructure could not address the water-related issues and health crisis. World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than 250,000 additional deaths per year are expected between 2030 and 2050 due to climate-induced malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea and heatstroke. In 2015, approximately two thousand people died from climate-induced diseases, including heatstroke and dehydration. Floods also contaminate freshwater supplies and disrupt water infrastructure, exacerbating the risk of waterborne diseases. As a result, diseases like malaria and diarrhea spread, adversely affecting the health security of Pakistan. The concentration of water also results in the spread of the dengue virus, threatening large populations every year.   
Pakistan's economy is largely dependent on natural resources, especially water channels, which are vulnerable to the negative effects of climate change. The geopolitical location of Pakistan among unfriendly countries also hinders its development and exacerbates climate effects on the country. Every year during monsoon, many regions of Pakistan are vulnerable to floods, which forces the government to initiate rescue operations and resettlement of exposed and affected populations. During heavy floods, India releases large amounts of water, which causes devastation to agricultural products and infrastructure across a vast area and displaces millions of people.¹² The unannounced release of huge amounts of water inundates vast areas of Pakistan, causing serious tension between the two neighbors. 
Though the water of the River Kabul has gradually reduced due to the construction of dams within Afghanistan, climate change has also played a significant role. Such actions by neighboring countries could further stress water availability in Pakistan and severely impact agricultural production. Additionally, this situation may lead to mistrust between neighboring countries, potentially damaging bilateral relations in the future.
As endorsed by the U.S.' Office of National Intelligence, Pakistan is among the vulnerable countries facing sociopolitical and socioeconomic instability due to severe climate change. Climate crises have gradually surged every year in volatile regions of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). Such crisis, amid the government's inability to address public needs, could encourage anti-state movements such as Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM) and Fitna al Khawarij (FaK), formerly recognized as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) to lure in food-deprived youth for their anti-state agendas. The involvement of non-state actors could create an environment of conflict and violence, which would further destabilize the state and cause economic losses.  
There is a strong linkage between natural disasters and mental disorders. Extreme heat, excessive floods, rising sea levels and global warming threaten human survival and damage to properties and infrastructure, making life difficult. Such a difficult and hostile environment affects human behavior, reducing their patience and instigating their aggressive posture and wild moods. Psycho-physical symptoms also include mood disturbance, irritability, anxiety, mental and physical weakness, hypertension, and headache.¹³  Intolerant behavior leads to crises and conflicts in society, causing sociopolitical breakdown, ultimately decimating the parameters of national security. 
Hot weather conditions frequently cause forest fires, damaging significant national assets. The country's geographical position increases the severity of the temperatures, drying up the moisture from the soil and vegetation, making it more vulnerable to flammability.¹⁴ The frequent wildfires destroyed 189 acres of land in 2021, 45 acres of Margalla National Park in 2022, and 40 per cent of the trees in the pine forests of the Koh-e-Suleiman range.  
Recommendations    
Increase of 0.50C in annual mean temperature and approximately 10 cm in sea level along the coastal areas of Karachi reflects the growing concerns about Pakistan's vulnerability to the climate threat. Economic preponderance at the global level would lead to an alarming increase of 3-50C in the country's temperature, which would further threaten its survival. Increased water volume in rivers, frequent floods, and large-scale wildfires have threatened natural resources, the compactness of the population, and millions of people's lives. The climate has become gradually more unpredictable and is likely to persist if global consensus is not developed for immediate measures.
Today, climate threast pose a greater risk to a country's security than terrorism.¹⁵ The climate threat to Pakistan may exacerbate conflicts over strained resources, create tensions among provinces over the distribution of national assets, wider disparities between ethnic groups,  cause population relocation, lead to uneven and disordered urbanization, increase food insecurity, and heighten poverty and unemployment, all of which would be detrimental to Pakistan's national security. Pakistan’s crucial reliance  on natural resources exposes it to the adverse effects of global warming, which requires urgent and immediate measures. Pakistan has already adopted various measures to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate threat; however, considering the accelerated pace of its effects, the pace should be stepped up.
Despite consensus, the National Security Policy (NSP) lacks a focused approach. Practical measures have not been taken to mitigate the effects, address the country's vulnerability, and strengthen institutional capacity. Establishing the Ministry of Climate Change and allocating PKR 10 billion in budget 2022-23 for institutionalizing climate response are positive steps.¹⁶ However, these funds are mainly diverted to relief and rescue operations in flood-affected areas every year. National orientation needs to be harnessed to meet the growing climate crisis in the country, as was done against terrorism and COVID-19. 
Climate awareness should be introduced in academic institutions, and research should be encouraged as part of public preparation campaigns. National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) should be organized to counter climate threats and integrate various national forums, including the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA). A strong and credible leadership would steer the national psyche towards combating climate effects. Such leadership would drive policies towards reducing pollution and mitigating the effects of climate change.
The National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) was approved in 2012, and it urged the implementation of climate adaptation under a climate change action plan. Mitigating and adapting actions are the two key ways of combating climate change. The country's more immediate and pressing task is preparing itself to adapt to climate change.¹⁷ The updated NCCP-2021 aims to steer Pakistan towards climate resilience and low-carbon development. In 2021, the climate threat was officially recognized as a national security concern at the Islamabad Security Dialogue (ISD).¹⁸ The government's release of the NSP 2022-2026 highlighted its impact on development, economic security, food security, and water security. The national security consequences of climate change should be fully integrated into national security and national defense strategies. 
The foremost step at the government level is to ensure adaptation, climate resilience, and sustainability. Flood-prone areas should be earmarked through constant monitoring and initiate timely evacuation of people before the floods. In safe places, permanent settlements for vulnerable populations would deny damage to human life and property. Construction along water channels is the major cause of urban flooding, which needs legislation and implementation. Local and provincial institutions should be equipped with more health facilities and modern technologies to sustain the effects of climate change. Training of disaster management workers and institutions would reduce risk factors to human lives and economic deterioration. 
Similarly, health infrastructure should be improved in all exposed regions capable of handling water-related diseases. International and national health agencies and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) must be incorporated while planning the construction of hospitals. Moreover, free treatment and medicine facilities should be extended to affected areas for better results. Planning mobile health teams would facilitate improved health situations in vulnerable areas.
The construction of plastic roads is an internationally recognized trend for reducing climate impact and recycling plastic waste. These roads are environmentally friendly and produce less carbon. They also significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.¹⁹ Pakistan should consider constructing plastic roads to help mitigate the effects of climate change.
The government should encourage clean energy sources to mitigate the effects of climate change and reduce carbon emissions. Investment in renewable energy would reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and the effects of growing climate change. Electric transport and solar technology would help ensure such management. Strong, rapid, and sustained reductions in methane emissions would also limit the warming effect resulting from declining aerosol pollution. 
Considering the growing climate threat, humans would be forced to live a neo-normal life; hence, passive measures would be adopted to reduce its effects. Resilient water supply and sanitation systems should be institutionalized to withstand climate impacts, and early warning systems for floods and heavy rains should be implemented. Climate-smart agriculture, such as drip irrigation, can help reduce water wastage. Additionally, reforestation efforts should be concentrated in vulnerable areas to mitigate flood impacts and maintain a sustainable water table. Pakistan's current forest cover is about 4.8 per cent of the total land area, significantly less than the international recommendation of 12 per cent.²⁰ The government can invest in building entirely new, distributed generation power systems that do not require grids and use non-polluting technologies for industry. It should also promote climate-resistant infrastructure and housing developments in climate-affected regions. Priority should be given to addressing the social and economic needs of these areas, with a more focused approach on education, healthcare, health reforms, and employment. Emphasis should also be placed on developing water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure.
Pakistan should enact legislation and ensure strict enforcement against deforestation and the burning of agricultural waste to reduce pollution and combat global warming. Construction along water channels should be strictly prohibited, and housing developments should not be permitted on agricultural lands. Legislation to protect the rights of laborers and farmers would strengthen the country's agricultural and industrial base. Ensuring minimum wages for laborers and a stable livelihood for farmers would support their survival and sustained efforts during challenging times.
The ill-planned expansion of urban areas and housing societies with inadequate services has already exacerbated climate impacts. The government should ensure the incorporation of green infrastructure into urban planning, including the creation of green spaces, plantations, and the use of sustainable building materials and designs.
India's strategy of weaponizing water sources against Pakistan as part of their rivalry has caused significant devastation in the country. Pakistan needs to develop consensus with both neighbors through a water-sharing treaty to avert the risk of regional conflict. Pakistan should construct dams and reservoirs to store excess water for agricultural and energy generation purposes.
Recently, India, Israel, and the UAE initiated the creation of a food corridor to address food security challenges. Pakistan should tackle its own food security issues by developing similar facilities in collaboration with friendly Islamic countries and China. Additionally, Pakistan should establish a food storage bank to prepare for the future challenges. Population growth must be managed through strict policies. According to the latest population census, Pakistan's population stands at 241.49 million as of 2023, reflecting the alarming rate of population growth.
Pakistan should utilize global agreements against climate change by actively participating in international regimes such as the Montreal Protocol (1987), the Kyoto Protocol (2005), and the Paris Agreement (2015). The basic agenda of these forums is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through coordinated efforts. Pakistan should urge developed countries to initiate measures for climate order honestly and grant maximum funds to developing countries to handle climate threats. Developed nations should use modern technology to undertake modern techniques of agriculture and renewable energy. Environmental scientists believe that with desperate measures and the use of modern technology, weather effects can be slowed down and global temperature can be stabilized. On World Environment Day in 2022, Pakistan urged wealthy countries to establish a green fund to support the world's poorest countries. 
Climate change, being a threat multiplier, is causing poverty, conflicts and environmental degradation at the global level, and Pakistan is no exception. The threat has become more pronounced due to the Russia-Ukraine war and conflict-related international humanitarian crises. By 2050, it has been projected that crop yields in South Asia will be reduced up to 30 per cent and freshwater availability will decrease by 12-20 per cent due to climate change. As predicted, climate effects would be exacerbated due to poor governance and lack of capacity, exposing more than 5.7 million people to flooding by 2030 in Pakistan.²¹ Climate variations would also cost USD 14 billion to the country's deteriorating economic situation.²² This combination of climate hazards and existing vulnerabilities threatens security for the country, the region and beyond. Climate change has already introduced conflicts in many countries, including Syria, Yemen, and Sudan.²³ Despite growing consensus that climate change has the potential to disrupt societies' milieu and ultimately threaten human security, the global powers are still far from implementing desired policies. Pakistan needs to introduce neo-normal and adaptation policies to mitigate the effects of climate change. 

The author works under the Ministry of Defense.

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