The 2024 elections secured Modi's third term but revealed a diminished mandate and a weakened power base. With shifting regional and global dynamics, India’s future stability and role amid rising geopolitical and domestic challenges are uncertain.

The outcome of the Indian General Elections 2024, which returned Modi for a third consecutive term, was quite evident. However, the main question that dominated everyone's mind was whether the Indian National Congress (INC) could rejuvenate itself and its electoral alliance in India to emerge as a serious contender for power in these elections or at least gain enough seats to be a formidable opposition, putting some brakes to the populist, hate-infested Hindutva policies? Will Congress, under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, be able to seize the opportunity to position itself by presenting a strong ideological alternative to Brand Modi of Hindu nationalism and contribute to the defense of Indian democracy?  
The unexpected results, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) winning only 240 seats and falling short of the halfway mark in the 543-member lower house of parliament, have shattered Modi’s ego and dream of an overwhelming majority of over 400 seats. Modi had to depend on his allies for the first time, as the BJP alone could not form a government. While the BJP’s alliance has come to power for the third consecutive term, it is with a far weaker mandate than ever before, as many of its political partners have a far less hardline Hindu nationalist agenda than the BJP. The election results have partially answered these questions. However, a clearer picture will emerge once the parliament settles down and legislative work begins earnestly.
The changes in Indian attitude concerning governance and state ideology during the last ten years of Modi’s populism have put the very fabric of Indian society and federalism in jeopardy. Hardline Hindutva rhetoric, persecution of minorities, curtailment of civil liberties, saffronization of Indian media, and shutting the independent journalists through intimidation and the tendency for a powerful centralized government have raised questions about government accountability. 
Looking at Narendra Modi, we see a leader who reeks of Hindu fundamentalism and populism, determined to destroy the secular constitution of India and set up a Hindu state that has no place for minorities, particularly Muslims. Modi, through populism, has provoked religious sensitivities, incited latent fears, exploited the underlying fissures in society, managed to gather steam, and is riding on a wave of popularity based on negativity. During his ten-year tenure, Modi managed to capture political and administrative power and put his goons at the helm of affairs, including in ministerial and strong administrative positions, with the judiciary lamely following suit and obliging. 
Supposedly, India remains a secular state and a multi-faith democracy. Religious minorities account for roughly 20 percent of the country's 1.4 billion people, including about 200 million Muslims and 28 million Christians. However, beneath the country's perceived inclusivity runs an undercurrent of Hindu nationalism that has been systematically promoted through state patronage and has gained strength during Prime Minister Modi's rule.
Modi has encouraged the surge in communal violence against all minorities in recent years, but the largest minority, the Muslims, have faced the worst kind of atrocities committed against them. Several new laws have been enacted that adversely affect their daily lives and interfere with their religious garments, food, where and how they worship, and even whom they marry. Modi, the Butcher of Gujrat, is a criminal who has been iconized not only by his cult following but is also aided by the full potential of the political, economic, administrative, and judicial apparatus to put him on a pedestal as the savior of the Indian nation.
Modi has created a personality cult around himself. Despite bad governance and several political setbacks, Modi's charisma and popularity helped the BJP return to power in the 2019 elections. The BJP sought votes solely in Modi’s name and won. This has created a fascist monster who is using the influence of his personality cult to destroy the secular fabric of India and create a Hindu state. Inspired by Modi’s policy of hate, otherization, exclusion, and fanaticism, his blind followers are wreaking havoc on the hapless minorities of India, particularly the Muslims.
There are many instances of criminal leaders who are highly dangerous because of the divisive and hate-infested ideologies they propagate, yet who are admired or even loved by people who feel supported and protected by them. It is mind-boggling to see how criminal governance structures that use violence enjoy so much legitimacy as Modi does in India. Government-backed criminal use of violence, and contentious, disruptive, discordant, and acrimonious discourse to wipe out the opposition and other elements who may not fit their own myopic, narrow, and intolerant ideology should not be acceptable at any level, both internally by the population and externally by the rest of the world.
Modi’s uninterrupted rule enhanced his government's capacity to push through its policy agenda, overruling the opposition and rendering the parliament ineffective amid bullish and destructive BJP legislative initiatives. Modi’s blatant misuse of important government agencies to intimidate and silence critical voices, along with his increasing assertion of authority over state governments, has harmed India’s federal structure. While the Modi government banked on "good governance" rhetoric to justify its proclivity for centralizing political power, this significantly contributed to the trust deficit between the central government and non-BJP-led states. The central government's interference in state affairs demonstrated a "regional bias" in the devolution of funds for states and the appointment of governors viewed as pro-BJP in states led by non-BJP governments.

The unexpected results, with the Bharatiya Janata Party  winning only 240 seats and falling short of the halfway mark in the 543-member lower house of parliament, have shattered Modi’s ego and dream of an overwhelming majority of over 400 seats. 

On the one hand, the erosion of democracy and secular values under Modi has wreaked havoc on minorities in India, unleashing the genie of fundamentalism and theorization. On the other hand, it has caused deep concern abroad, both in the West and among regional states. Although India’s Western allies have fundamental and growing economic, environmental, and strategic interests in maintaining strong ties with India, independent of its democratic record, India’s growing Hindutva-inspired nationalism may become problematic for these allies to navigate.
Concerns are common in global politics, but the Indian polity broadly believes India is better than most other countries. India's Minister of External Affairs has since 2022 popularized the idea that India will go "the India way." However, the risks involved in dealing with a country with rapidly eroding democratic credentials may become increasingly problematic for its western allies, particularly the European allies for whom democracy and human rights are the two fundamental principles. Whether India can maintain its attraction as a strategic partner in the international arena in the middle of mounting majoritarianism domestically remains to be seen. 
At the regional level, mindful of growing Chinese investments, India has extended numerous credit lines and other incentives to smaller neighboring countries. However, fundamental disagreements remain unresolved, ranging from border issues and river water sharing to migration and other irritants. Regarding Pakistan, under Modi, there have been no meaningful attempts to resolve tensions. In fact, relations have deteriorated, particularly after the unilateral abrogation of the special status of Illegally Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), in violation of international norms.
A looming conflict pertains to water-sharing due to India's plans for new hydropower projects on its western borders. Similarly, Modi has rendered the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) practically defunct by refusing to agree to the long-overdue SAARC Summit. Consequently, anti-Indian sentiment persists across South Asia, with its neighbors forging closer ties with Beijing to hedge against Indian predominance.
The Indian government is aware of its military and economic limitations compared to China's growing defense and technological strength. Early attempts at leader-level diplomacy did not produce any positive results, leading to an escalation of tensions across the border. Prospects for a breakthrough in relations remain wishful thinking, as illustrated by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s absence from the G20 summit. 
With mounting tensions between China and the U.S. and rising geopolitical, geostrategic, and geo-economic competition in the Asia Pacific region, India will try to engage with smaller regional states and a broad array of partners from the West and the Global South. However, subtle weariness of India's hegemonistic designs and Hindu extremism is rising in these states. The expulsion of Indian troops from the Maldives is a case in point. How India will sustain growth in the face of geo-economic shocks, the effects of climate change, and geopolitical tensions will largely depend on the post-election scenario and the international community’s response to Modi’s government policies.
From an Indian perspective, it is evident that Modi has preserved India's strategic autonomy by avoiding binding alliances. India has deepened its trade relations with Russia while continuing to improve ties with the U.S. With highly visible state visits and crucial defense agreements, India-U.S. relations are now stronger than ever. Partnerships with France and Japan, particularly in infrastructure and defense, have significantly strengthened through lucrative defense and commercial deals.
Modi has also succeeded in intensifying relations with states in the Middle East and North Africa, from Egypt to Saudi Arabia. Despite its traditional concerns with Israel over the Palestinian issue, India has become an important partner of Israel in defense procurement and other sectors—a move not supported by the majority in India. This development has also called into question Indian claims to leadership of the Global South, a key message Modi sought to convey during India's G20 presidency in 2023.
It is also true that with increasing signs of the emergence of a multipolar world, the international environment may now be more conducive to India's ascendancy than ever before. India's internal market and growing population make it an attractive investment destination for Western businesses keen to diversify risk amid China's increasing confidence. The intensifying U.S.-China rivalry has also markedly raised India's importance as a security partner for the West. There is no doubt that Modi and his key foreign policy personnel have leveraged this advantageous strategic position of India to their benefit.
Under the Modi regime, India has been part of a global trend of democratic backsliding. The increasing nationalistic rhetoric, which exacerbates religious and ethnic fault lines, has aided the BJP's rise to power. These trends are likely to persist, albeit with lesser intensity, due to a strong opposition from the opposition parties.
The question moving forward is: How will this new reality of diminished power and stronger opposition impact Modi’s governance style and his hate-driven way of doing things? Will he be a chastened leader, and will he decide to scale back some of his ambitions?"

The writer has served as an Ambassador to China, the European Union, Belgium, Luxembourg. and Ireland. She has also authored and edited several books, including Magnificent Pakistan, Pakistan-China All Weather Friendship, and Lost Cities of Indus. 
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