An in-depth analysis of the ongoing conflict, including its historical context, Israel's current vulnerabilities, and the challenges the U.S. faces in balancing its support for Israel with its own regional strategic interests.

With looming threats of genocide and annihilation casting a long shadow over the horizon, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is worsening day by day, yet this is not altogether a new scenario for the Palestinians. The very creation of the State of Israel in 1948 was marked by extensive violence and displacement, which many described as ‘ethnic cleansing’ at that time. During the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, also known as the Nakba or "catastrophe" by Palestinians, hundreds of thousands of Palestinian Arabs were forcibly removed from their homes or fled. This mass displacement and the destruction of Palestinian villages have had a lasting impact on the region, creating deep-seated grievances that persist to this day.
The establishment of Israel involved significant military operations aimed at securing territory, which led to the displacement of around 700,000 Palestinian Arabs, as documented in various reports and historical analyses. Forced evacuations, destruction of homes and property, and prevention of the return of Palestinian refugees set a precedent for ongoing conflict and territorial disputes.
The 1967 Six-Day War further exacerbated the situation, with Israel capturing the West Bank, Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem, and other territories. This expansion resulted in additional displacements and solidified Israeli control over more land, further entrenching the cycle of conflict and displacement.
In recent years, organizations such as Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and B'Tselem have published voluminous reports about ongoing policies and practices of Israel, describing them as systemic ethnic cleansing and apartheid. The aforesaid policies and practices include restrictions on movement, land confiscation, and discriminatory laws that continue to affect Palestinians in both Israel and the occupied territories.
The ongoing conflict, marked by military operations in Gaza and other areas, highlights the enduring and unresolved issues stemming from the very creation of the Israeli state, a contentious legacy that still shapes the region's geopolitical dynamics. Even today, Israel operates without a formal constitution, relying instead on a set of ‘basic laws’ that guide its legal system and governance structure. The absence of a constitution is emblematic of deeper systemic issues, primarily the challenge of defining the state's character and addressing the rights and identities of its diverse population. Central to this challenge is the demographic reality of approximately 7.3 million Palestinians residing within Israel's recognized borders and the territories it occupies, including the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Granting equal rights to this significant portion of the population poses existential questions to the Jewish character of the Israeli state, as envisioned by its foundational Zionist ideology, which has further complicated the prospects of a lasting constitutional settlement and peace.

In recent years, organizations such as Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and B'Tselem have published voluminous reports about ongoing policies and practices of Israel, describing them as systemic ethnic cleansing and apartheid. 

As part of a broader strategy, the then Prime Minister of Israel, Ariel Sharon, implemented unilateral disengagement from the Gaza Strip in 2005 and removed all Israeli settlements from the area. According to Dov Weisglass, Sharon's adviser, this move aimed to consolidate illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank and preclude future peace negotiations with the Palestinians. The disengagement facilitated the expropriation of approximately 58 percent of Palestinian land in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, including essential water resources and fertile areas, for Israeli settlement expansion. This land acquisition policy, viewed by many as land theft, has been heavily supported and financed by the U.S. administration. The goal was to solidify Israeli control over strategic territories and undermine the prospects of a contiguous Palestinian state. 
This move effectively isolated Gaza, transforming it into an open-air prison, with Israel managing external access and exerting control through periodic military engagements. Israel initially believed it was effectively managing Gaza by controlling its borders and ensuring that Hamas remained in power while also attempting to contain it. This strategy served as a convenient excuse for Israel to continue its settlement expansion, occupation, and rejection of a Palestinian state. With Hamas in the picture, Israel avoided engaging in any genuine peace process or serious political negotiations. It diminished the need to take Palestinian demands for statehood, liberation, and rights seriously.
However, on October 7, 2023, the Hamas attack marked a significant shift, profoundly impacting regional and global political dynamics. This incident underscored the volatility in the region, highlighting the complex challenges of managing conflict and diplomacy in the region.
The devastation thus caused has been profound; homes were destroyed, and critical infrastructure, including a UN school sheltering displaced people, was hit. These strikes resulted in significant civilian casualties, intensifying the already dire humanitarian crisis in Gaza. As reported by the Gaza health ministry, around 38,000 Palestinians have died since the onset of hostilities in October 2023, including more than 2,000 elderly people, 5,000 women, 8,000 teenagers, and 1,500 children. These incidents sparked global outrage and condemnation of Israeli military actions. U.S. President Joe Biden, while criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the high civilian death toll, argued that such actions contradict Israel's stated mission of self-defense and harm the country's international reputation. He urged Netanyahu to cease attacks on civilian communities and not to justify the violence as a military necessity. 
Despite global uproar coupled with a ruling by the top UN court ordering Israel to cease its operations, assaults by Israel continued. Israeli forces, in a series of recent attacks, bombed several areas in Rafah and the Al-Mawasi camp, designated as humanitarian safe zones, resulting in significant civilian casualties. The airstrike on Tal As-Sultan in Rafah killed numerous civilians, including women and children, and caused severe injuries and burns to many. Furthermore, another Israeli assault near the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) base at the Al-Mawasi camp killed at least 25 people and wounded 50. These actions provoked strong reactions from various countries, including Egypt, Qatar, Jordan, and Kuwait, highlighting the potential hindrance to ceasefire negotiations and raising serious concerns regarding violations of international laws and targeting areas specifically meant to be safe havens for civilians. Sari Bashi, Human Rights Watch’s Program Director, views such incidents as part of a broader pattern where civilians directed to safe areas are nonetheless targeted, undermining trust in the safety measures supposedly in place.
While Western media frequently portrays Israel's objectives in Gaza as the elimination of Hamas and the rescue of hostages taken by the group, the critical observers suggest a more insidious goal, i.e., ethnic cleansing of Palestinians to drive them out of Gaza. Though rarely mentioned in Western media, this perspective is a recurring theme in Israeli media discussions. The high civilian death toll and destruction of critical infrastructure aimed to make Gaza uninhabitable is undeniable evidence in the given context. Reports indicate that Israel's actions would cause starvation and famine, making life increasingly untenable for Palestinians. UN humanitarians working in Gaza have also declared the situation unlivable, calling Gaza “a world of devastation.”

Today, Israel faces formidable adversaries, including Iran, the Houthis, and Hezbollah, which possess around 150,000 missiles and rockets. The technological advancements in missile technology among these adversaries have created substantial challenges for Israel.

The ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip has severely hindered the delivery of humanitarian aid. Military actions and blockades have made delivering vital supplies, such as food, medicines, and medical care, difficult. The inability to establish a ceasefire and create a humanitarian corridor has aggravated the suffering of Gaza's civilian population, and international organizations are calling for a peace agreement at the earliest. 
The global response to Israel's recent actions in Gaza has been marked by widespread condemnation and activism. Hundreds of protests are taking place worldwide, with people in Western countries boycotting products made in Israel or by the companies supporting Israel's actions in Gaza. In the U.S. universities, the student bodies and academic institutions have also become increasingly vocal against Israeli policies. The growing campus activism reflects broader societal shifts in attitudes toward Israel. The backlash from international communities reflects a growing impatience with the unresolved Palestinian plight and has significantly impacted Israel's international reputation. As more Western countries call for recognizing Palestinian statehood or advocating for the two-state solution, the pressure on Israel to alter its policies and approach to the conflict intensifies.
South Africa has brought Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which is currently examining whether Israel has committed genocide in Gaza. Although a final determination is yet to be announced, the ICJ found "enough evidence to think that Israel might be committing genocide." This legal scrutiny adds to the international pressure on Israel and further tarnishes its global stature.
Despite nine months of aggressive operations, Israel has not succeeded in defeating Hamas or cleansing Gaza, leaving the country in a precarious situation. Israeli forces have returned to Gaza, struggling to manage the region they once left on purpose. The desire for escalation with Iran has been a longstanding element of Israeli strategy, which was highlighted by the attack on the Iranian Embassy in Syria on April 1, 2024. Israel has traditionally boasted about its ability to defend itself against adversaries independently. However, Iranian retaliation significantly undermined this assertion, which exposed gaps in Israel's defense capabilities. Notably, evidence shows that at least half of the missiles aimed at Israel were intercepted by U.S. defense systems, challenging Israel's claims of self-reliance and dealing a blow to its international reputation.
Hezbollah's attacks from the north have further exposed the vulnerability of Israel's security dynamics, prompting 60,000 to 100,000 Israelis to relocate to central Israel. Israel’s current dominance is not what it used to be in 2003 when Hezbollah kidnapped an Israeli soldier and killed a few. Today, Israel faces formidable adversaries, including Iran, the Houthis, and Hezbollah, which possess around 150,000 missiles and rockets. The technological advancements in missile technology among these adversaries have created substantial challenges for Israel. 
Additionally, Israel's inability to conduct operations in Gaza without U.S. support unveils another critical vulnerability. The Iron Dome defense system has shown limitations, as Israel narrowly escaped retaliation from Iran with substantial U.S. assistance. Israel not only depends on U.S. military assistance and ammunition but also relies on American intelligence and air-defense systems. The international community's intervention, including UN debates where U.S. vetoes have been crucial, further lays bare Israel's dependence on the U.S. for diplomatic support to navigate its security dilemmas. If the U.S. had not repeatedly used its veto power, the UN would likely have compelled Israel to agree on a ceasefire long ago. Israel’s heavy reliance on the U.S. exposes its strategic and operational challenges.
The U.S. is wary of another war, already engaged in multiple global conflicts. This is exactly why it did not take part in the counter-offensive after the Iranian retaliation on April 14, 2024. Public opinion in the U.S. is also largely against initiating new conflicts. The Biden administration faces the challenge of balancing its support for Israel with broader strategic interests. Pre-October 7 situation in the Middle East with relative peace suits U.S. strategic interests and would allow the U.S. to redirect its resources and attention to the Asia-Pacific region, an area of greater strategic importance to the U.S. on account of China's growing influence. The U.S. needs to concentrate on its pivot to Asia strategy in its bid to contain China effectively. However, U.S. engagement in Ukraine and the Middle East conflicts thwarts this strategic endeavor. In the current era of great power competition, maintaining friendly relations by the U.S. with as many Middle Eastern countries as possible seems predominantly apt for its strategic goals. This approach is particularly important for the U.S., given Russia's established presence in the region and China's increasing influence, including its growing naval capabilities in the Gulf. The Abraham Accord, which aimed to normalize relations between Israel and several Arab states, has faced a stern blow after the Hamas attack.  The U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) under Israeli pressure has further complicated the situation. Iran's growing ties with China and Russia add another layer of complexity to the U.S. strategic calculations.
Israel's ongoing conflict in Gaza and its broader regional ambitions have far-reaching implications for global geopolitics. The international community's response echoes a significant shift in attitudes towards Israel. Navigating these complex dynamics requires a careful balance by the U.S. while supporting Israel and simultaneously addressing broader strategic priorities in an increasingly multipolar world.
Currently, Israel appears to have been caught in a spiral in Gaza, where the war goals and rhetoric have far exceeded what Israel could realistically achieve. The fulfillment of promises made to its citizens and the international community seems beyond its capacity. Hamas represents the only entity that has challenged Israel over its violent and systematic repressive policies. While many do not support all of Hamas’ tactics, it is seen as the only group standing up to Israel’s impunity.
Even if Israel manages to dismantle Hamas, it faces the critical issue of having nothing to fill the resultant vacuum. There is no clear alternative, exit strategy, end game, or political postwar vision for Gaza. This lack of a coherent plan for the future underscores the complex challenges Israel faces in managing both the conflict and its broader regional ambitions, leaving the situation in a precarious and unresolved state. The absence of a postwar vision complicates the region's path to peace and stability, further entangling global political dynamics.

The writer is a PhD scholar in International Relations at NUML, a political and social analyst based in Muzaffarabad, and a human rights campaigner.
Twitter: @NylaKayani
E-mail: [email protected]