Pakistan, being an agricultural country, is under a serious threat of food insecurity and water shortage mainly because of climate change. The effects of climate change are fostering every year and posing new challenges, especially for sustainable agricultural production.

Real Life Challenges
Pakistan, being an agricultural country, is under a serious threat of food insecurity and water shortage mainly because of climate change. The effects of climate change are fostering every year and posing new challenges, especially for sustainable agricultural production. Since climate change affects the natural world, it is evident that it will have a significant effect on the production of crops, plants and livestock–the major contributors of food security in the future. The negative consequences of climate change will have a considerable impact on crop yield, livestock and fisheries production. An increase in average temperature will lead to water shortage, droughts, floods, and a high concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere, which worsens the quality and quantity of staple crops like wheat and maize to a large extent. Pakistan witnessed floods of 2010 and 2012, clouds bursts in different parts, temperature rise, unusual shift in the summer and winter seasons and the most devastating heavy rains, followed by flooding in parts of Balochistan, Sindh and Punjab during the monsoon season of 2022.  
For the last many years, Pakistan was producing surplus cereals (wheat and rice) and sugarcane; however, vegetable oil and pulses were deficient and the requirements were being met through imports.  The year 2023 witnessed shortage and price hikes in food items including wheat flour–a staple food of the country. For the first time in the history of Pakistan, long queues were seen for free wheat flour distribution and even a few deaths occurred because of stampedes. The situation has reached an alarming stage of food shortage and decline in affordability of the poor masses of the country. The main reasons behind food shortage in Pakistan account for flooding of crops and displacement of more than 30 million people during the monsoon rains of 2022. Other countable factors included the political instability, the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as low yield of crops due to the non-availability of fertilizers and their high prices in the international market. Wheat production target for the current year may also suffer because of unusual rains at wheat harvesting time (March-April) in South Punjab and Sindh provinces, resulting in crop damage. Whereas, during the year 2022, the quick rise of temperature above 33 degrees Celsius (⁰C) during the same period rendered the wheat crop low yield because of unfilled and shriveled seeds. The change in time of precipitation is not the only variation, but its pattern has also shifted in most parts of the world including Pakistan, and the areas having less precipitation are receiving more rains and vice versa. Similarly, the shift in the glacier sites in Himalayas has also been observed, which may not disturb the total volume of the glaciers, but will affect the flow of rivers.  Although Pakistan is facing big challenges of this climate change pattern, there are some blessings in disguise as well. Every challenge provides opportunities which need to be captured well in time. For example, the dry and rainfed areas are receiving more rains, especially in the larger areas of Balochistan, which could be better utilized for crop production including wheat, provided that the rainwater is harvested and utilized effectively. 

The negative consequences of climate change will have a considerable impact on crop yield, livestock and fisheries production. An increase in average temperature will lead to water shortage, droughts, floods, and a high concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere, which worsens the quality and quantity of staple crops like wheat and maize to a large extent.

In Pakistan, out of the total area of 79.6 million hectares, 23.04 million hectares are cultivated while the rest of the territory is comprised of culturable waste, densely populated forests and rangelands. Agricultural irrigated land (percentage of total agricultural land) in Pakistan was reported at 52.66 % in 2020 (World Bank Report of April 2023). The areas of rainfed agriculture in Pakistan are those which totally depend on the rainfall for the cultivation. About 18 mega hectares (MHA) is irrigated, and the rest is rainfed. The rainfed areas of Pakistan sustain 80 percent of the livestock population and contributes 12 percent of wheat, 27 percent of maize, 69 percent of sorghum, 21 percent of millet, 25 percent of rapeseed and mustard, 77 percent of a gram, 90 percent of groundnuts and so on.

The main reasons behind food shortage in Pakistan account for flooding of crops and displacement of more than 30 million people during the monsoon rains of 2022. Other countable factors included the political instability, the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as low yield of crops due to the non-availability of fertilizers and their high prices in the international market.

The total cropped area of Balochistan is 3.8 percent of the total cropped area of the country (23.04 MHA), yet it is the largest province in terms of land area (44% of Pakistan). The major reasons for less area under cultivation is the lack of infrastructure, non-availability of water and low precipitation. On the other hand, where groundwater is available for orchards, the province is the largest contributor to the national production of apples (82%), peaches (69%), grapes (97.6%), pomegranates (82%), dates (64%), almonds (93.5%) and plums (49%). 
Since independence, emphasis in Pakistan was on irrigated agriculture because of abundant water availability in rivers and canals which has been squeezed for the last 30 years. Until the early eighties, because of flood irrigation, the groundwater level increased enormously, resulting in salinity and waterlogging in the plains of Punjab and Sindh provinces. However, with the building of water reservoirs on the rivers and diversion of water by India and ill planning of Pakistan for judicious use of available water through additional reservoirs and diversions, the country is faced with a water deficient situation. Overextraction of groundwater through tube wells has also brought down the level of groundwater beyond its recharging capacity; hence, the shortage of water is being felt everywhere instead of waterlogging. The threats of water shortage in the irrigated areas are becoming a big challenge for food insecurity and agricultural production in the plains of Punjab and Sindh, the food basket.

In Pakistan, out of the total area of 79.6 million hectares, 23.04 million hectares are cultivated while the rest of the territory is comprised of culturable waste, densely populated forests and rangelands. Agricultural irrigated land (percentage of total agricultural land) in Pakistan was reported at 52.66 % in 2020 (World Bank Report of April 2023).

Future planning needs consideration of bringing more land area under cultivation by resolving the water scarcity issues in the rainfed areas. The shift of climate in Balochistan having heavy precipitation during summer and snowfall in winter, as witnessed during monsoon and winter season of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, may be the key to bringing more arable land under cultivation and increased production of cereals for food security of the country. As most of the rainfed areas are hilly, the unchecked rainwater flow down the valleys and low-lying plains (in terms of flash floods) is taking a heavy toll on lives, housing and farm production. Besides an increase in the cultivated land, the harvesting and storage of rainwater may help the recharging of groundwater and its use for cultivation purposes during the period of dry spells and water scarcity. Even the traditional system of rainwater harvesting and storage in the plain areas in the ponds of every village needs rehabilitation to recharge the groundwater. 
Pakistan faces “significantly higher average temperatures than the global average, with a potential rise of 1.3°C-4.9°C by the 2090s over the 1986-2005 baseline,” according to a study, which also noted that Pakistan had “some of the highest disaster risk levels in the world, ranked 18 out of 191 countries by the 2020 Inform Risk Index.” Deforestation, especially the indiscriminate logging of slow growing species of plants without a replacement plan and loss of vegetation, is impacting the temperature rise in local areas, though it’s a global phenomenon and the effect of industrial CO₂ has increased in the atmosphere too. The Himalayas are towers of water springs and its contribution in the global temperature rise cannot be ignored; hence, its dense forest depletion is also a challenge.

The total cropped area of Balochistan is 3.8 percent of the total cropped area of the country (23.04 MHA), yet it is the largest province in terms of land area (44% of Pakistan). The major reasons for less area under cultivation is the lack of infrastructure, non-availability of water and low precipitation.

In short, Pakistan is under a serious threat of food insecurity and water shortage because of climate change. These challenges also have opportunities which need robust and targeted planning and quick action plans to maintain its status and increase its effectiveness in the global community. Abundant natural resources including human resources are available to turn the wind in its favor. 

The shift of climate in Balochistan having heavy precipitation during summer and snowfall in winter, as witnessed during monsoon and winter season of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, may be the key to bringing more arable land under cultivation and increased production of cereals for food security of the country.

Way Forward
Being an agrarian country having 70% of its labor force engaged in agriculture, Pakistan cannot afford to lose its status as an agriculturally self-sufficient and self-sustained country. The recent natural disasters and gaps and lapses in the policymaking of the country, despite continuous warnings from national and international climate change agencies, has rendered the country in a food insecurity turmoil.  Immediate measures on a war footing basis are required to take hold of the situation to sustain the people of the country. The recent price hikes have created a self-made famine like situation and the food items purchase has gone beyond the affordability of the main masses, which may worsen further if proper measures are not taken well in time. The following measures are essentially required to be taken into consideration for both short with long-term planning with an anticipated action plan:
▪  Development of water storage bodies in the hilly areas to harvest the rainwater and reduce the flow of rainwater, resulting in the flash flooding of low-lying plains, especially in Balochistan. It will help in irrigation as well as improvement in the groundwater level. 
▪ Bringing more arable land under cultivation in Balochistan where rain intensity has been increased by the climate shift.
▪   Development of physical infrastructure for far-flung areas and education of Balochistan to engage the youth in ‘land-use plan’ for agricultural purposes. 
▪ Strengthening of the provincial and federal agricultural research institutes with new technologies and prioritizing the research under newly emerging circumstances.
▪ Mass plantation of olives in the rainfed areas of Balochistan, Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), where experiments have proved its successful cultivation to reduce the import bills of vegetable oil. 
▪ Plantation of palm oil plants in the coastal areas of Sindh and Balochistan having been tried with success for vegetable oil production.

Being an agrarian country having 70% of its labor force engaged in agriculture, Pakistan cannot afford to lose its status as an agriculturally self-sufficient and self-sustained country. 

▪ Rice varieties, already approved for low water requirements, and use of precision methods to provide the required amount of water instead of flooding the whole fields.
▪ Adopt safe methods of crop harvesting and storage under odd rains at the time of crop maturity like wheat crop.
▪ Intercropping of wheat in the sugarcane fields to expand its cultivation area in Sindh and Punjab without additional inputs.
▪ Development and introduction of drought tolerant varieties of food crops using quick technology of recombinant deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) and gene editing. Some varieties have already been developed and may be adopted on the farms.
▪ Precision-agricultural practices to stop the wastage of water and other inputs.
▪ Development of water storage bodies in the Cholistan area for rainwater harvesting and recharging of groundwater.
▪ Ban on logging of the forests and rehabilitation and massive plantation of depleted forest lands on the steep hills of Himalayas and Sulaiman mountains to bring down the effect of global temperature rise and to reduce the impact of flash flooding.
▪ Ban on converting the fertile agricultural land into housing societies and making it mandatory to develop small rainwater harvesting and storage body in every new housing scheme/project. It will recharge the groundwater, which is under the threat of depletion and will help in kitchen gardening and household use.
▪ Human resource development through higher education and skill-based practical education with special emphasis on the youth of Balochistan.
▪  Allotment of pieces of land to the youth having short trainings and degrees in agriculture to bring more land under cultivation in Balochistan.
▪  The subsidies provided through free wheat flour and Benazir Income Support Program (BISP) may be diverted to the unemployed youth for their engagement in agriculture production.
▪ The youth from colleges and universities may be incentivized to get them engaged during vacations with support money to develop water storage bodies and other infrastructure development projects pertaining to agriculture on a war footing.
▪ Water storage bodies on River Indus and its subsidiaries may be expanded for irrigation and power generation where appropriate.
▪   Awareness may be created through media about the challenges of food insecurity and use of land for food production. Every household with a suitable environment may plant a fruit tree for kitchen gardening and raising of poultry, a goat or so, to meet their needs at home. Even in the cities, the roofs of the houses can be used for the same purpose.

The recent price hikes have created a self-made famine like situation and the food items purchase has gone beyond the affordability of the main masses, which may worsen further if proper measures are not taken well in time. 

Although the food insecurity and water scarcity challenges are huge, they are not unsurmountable. Pakistan has a very strong youth and human capital that can do wonders when directed and guided with proper training and incentives. The nature has gifted Pakistan the deepest seas, the highest mountains, fertile lands, four seasons to grow all food items known to humans and a historical ideological culture and agricultural potential. The only lacking factor is the robust planning with concerted and continued visionary policies for the utilization of the potential of natural resources. The time has come that the country shall stand on its own feet without looking for external help and all stakeholders shall sequester their energies and determination to come out of the crises situation. The suggestions mentioned above are a few; however, more can be added as per the need and practical experiences to achieve the targets.

The writer is Emeritus Professor of Molecular Genetics and a Former Vice Chancellor of University of Kotli and University of AJK, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan.
Email: [email protected] 

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